After Three Pillars — Six-Month Field Notes on the Four Added Signals

Six months after Why Three Pillars Aren't Enough. How the four added signals (events / user journeys / deploy correlation / similarity) actually performed in production.

John Baek
John Baek
Founder, CollabOps
After Three Pillars — Six-Month Field Notes on the Four Added Signals

Six months after Why Three Pillars Aren't Enough. The operational evaluation of the four added signals.

Six-month data

Signal                  | MTTR contribution (before → after) | Op burden
─────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────┼────────────
1. Events                | 53 → 31 min (−22)                   | Low
2. User journeys         | 31 → 24 min (−7)                    | Medium
3. Deploy correlation    | 24 → 17 min (−7)                    | Mid-heavy
4. Similarity matching   | 17 → 23 min (+6) *regression*       | High

Similarity matching turned negative. Reason follows.

Real value vs operational burden per signal

Events — highest ROI

Event stream took two weeks to ship. MTTR −22 minutes. Highest ROI. Every org should pin this first.

User journeys — good but expensive

Journey tracking carries high data-collection + storage cost. MTTR −7 minutes. Still net positive ROI but one-third of Events.

Deploy correlation — surprisingly complex

Auto-mapping each deploy to affected metrics / segments turned out harder than expected. Required manual labeling to compensate. MTTR −7 minutes.

Similarity matching — regression

Biggest finding. Vector matching past incidents produced too many false positives. Each new alarm came with 5 similar past cases, of which only 1 was actually relevant. Reviewing and rejecting the other 4 added time.

We tried — raise vector similarity threshold 0.7 → 0.95. False positives dropped. But recall fell 50% — we missed genuinely similar cases.

Conclusion — similarity matching is net negative as currently configured. We rolled back to explicit search (human-triggered).

Six-month cumulative effect

Starting MTTR:   53 min (three pillars only)
Ending MTTR:     23 min (three pillars + three signals, similarity removed)

Net improvement: −30 min (−57%)

Originally projected 23 minutes with all four. Final 23 minutes with similarity removed. The discovery that similarity is net negative was the biggest lesson of the six months.

Plan for the next six months

Hypothesis for net positive similarity matching:

  • Activate vector search only on manual trigger
  • Two-stage search — first pass for matches, then human picks which look similar
  • Don't auto-show past cases — show them when humans search

Plan: measure in Q3.

For SREs and platform leads layering a fourth signal on top of the three pillars, our six-month MTTR data (53 → 23 minutes) is the starting point. The numbers are workload-specific, but the similarity-matching false positive problem is likely a common pitfall. Before adoption, start with explicit trigger mode.

Tags#observability#sre#incident#monitoring#devops